Mr. Waller said that this week's CPI data was very good and that if more such data were available, the Fed could cut rates in the first half of the year, arguing that a cut in March could not be ruled out. If inflation falls, the Fed could cut rates more aggressively than market expectations.
Olivia Cross of Capital Economics said in a note that a "significant decline" in non-farm payrolls would be necessary this week for the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points next week. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect job creation to slow to 100,000 from 254,000 in September because of the hurricanes and strikes. Cross said the data would need to be much lower than expected to make the Fed more dovish. Cross, on the other hand, sees upside risks to inflation, ...
Allianz Chief Economist Erian wrote that Powell will face a challenge in Jackson Hole this week, and he needs to use this golden opportunity to re-establish the effectiveness of his forward policy guidance, otherwise it may further damage its policy effectiveness and reputation. Some prominent Wall Street analysts and financial observers have called on the Federal Reserve to implement an urgent intersession rate cut immediately, which is unnecessary and may even be harmful. (Golden Ten)